Saturday, September 20, 2014

Scotland says No to independence

Well the independence referendum in Scotland brought no surprise, as polls predicted it the Scots choose to stay within the United Kingdom. That's really interesting since everywhere else in Europe regions struggle to separate (see Catalunya, Corsica, Kosovo - the last one if we don't mention Crimeea which would arguably still be a referendum for independence).

Anyway if the Scots would have taken this historical chance to take their country back (as William Wallace said it in the block-buster Braveheart) there would be a lot of struggle with splitting the national debt, the budgets, being kicked-off NATO and EU, adopting their own coin, etc. So maybe they thought it would be too much of a headache to be independent and preferred to continue staying dependent on London.

David Cameron's bet paid off in the end even risky and Scots might not have a similar chance for a few centuries more. But how knows?

Thursday, September 4, 2014

Lowest ever interest rate

Who would have ever imagined that the Central European Bank would lower the reference interest rate to a measly 0,05%? That's almost free right?

Concerns of another crisis wave have increased after this measure as critics interpret this as a desperate way to stimulate consumption. However the markets reaction is minimal and banks are cautious to offer credit even at this rate.

Mario Draghi, the Bank's president will hold a press conference to explain this decision but analyst expect it will have little effect unless backed-up by other stimulation measures.

Friday, August 29, 2014

Russia invades Ukraine

Yes, it's as simple as that, confirmed by both Kiev and NATO about 100 tanks and armored vehicles crossed the Russian - Ukrainian border and occupied a few small cities near the border. Of course this is viewed as a rebel counter-offensive by Moscow but weren't the rebels besieged in their last two remaining strongholds in Luhansk and Donetsk?

The Western powers protested to Kremlin but they seem incapable of doing more even with Ukraine asking desperately for military assistance. Kiev's army is pushed back and will have a very tough challenge fighting against the superior Russian weapons delivered to the rebels.

In the meantime the country is slowly falling apart economically with the cost of the war being harder and harder to sustain each day. Lost between the EU and Russia, with a civil war scaring off foreign investors and a resigning government it seems there are dark horizons for Ukraine.

Saturday, August 23, 2014

Russian convoy enters Ukraine, Kiev accuses open invansion

After a week of stationing at the Russian-Ukrainian border for customs check it seems that Moscow lost its patience and it's willing to help the poor Ukrainians even if they like it or not. President Putin order the trucks to pass the border without expecting an agreement to do so.

Kiev accused an invasion saying that any unauthorized border pass is clearly a violation of international rules but Kremlin seems to ignore these complaints. The trucks head deeper and deeper into the rebels controlled zone carrying possible weapons, ammunition, explosives and others.

In other events three armored vehicles and a couple of unidentified troops were spotted crossing the border into Ukraine from the Russian side. When question Moscow simply stated it's not aware of any trespassing. All this while the war is at its peak on the streets of Luhansk.

Thursday, August 14, 2014

Russian humanitarian convoy going to Ukraine

OK that's interesting, so while Ukraine and most of the West accuses Russia of arming the separatists and fueling the war Putin thought to send a humanitarian convoy to help the population in the East. Lots of theories came spraying out of this: is this a Trojan horses convoy? Soldiers, weapon, ammunition? Only medicine and food supplies?

We've all seen on TVs that long line of white trucks (were they German MAN trucks?) driving slowly towards the Russian-Ukrainian border. The officials in Kiev were kind of outraged of this idea, accepting help from the enemy is not exactly what they need.

So once the trucks reach the border what will it happen? Assuming there are sectors of border controlled entirely by separatists (likely they are) the trucks will get in and unload their supply without problems. If Ukrainians try to prevent them and stop them by force they need to be very carefully not to offer the pretext for a future Russian military intervention.

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Tuesday, August 12, 2014

It's getting hotter in Ukraine

It seems the Ukrainian army is ready to assault the two rebel cities in the East, Donetsk and Lugansk. The population is fleeing, taking refuge while the rebels are preparing to make their last stand. Or not?

A Russian humanitarian convoy has been sent to these cities, to aid civilians they say. Russia amassed a huge intervention force at the Ukrainian borders intimidating their neighboring country but didn't act yet. Maybe they were happy with the rebels resistance in their cities, however a successful assault of the Ukrainian troops would turn the tables. Will then Moscow feel the need to attack?
They can't afford to lose Ukraine from their claws that's for sure.

In other news some 3500 Ukrainian soldiers went missing out of the blue in the east. The official reports are quite confusing, could they have been taken prisoners? Or they simply deserted to the rebels? Support for the war is very low especially in the Ukrainian regions which were former territories of Romania and Poland, more and more these minorities refuse to fight for a government that cared little of them so far.

Monday, August 11, 2014

Oil price might double under the pressure of Ukraine war and Iraq civil war

Well oil pricing is under 100 dollars but could this be the beginning of the perfect storm? There is a growing concern in the markets with the intensified war in Ukraine and the continuous unrest in the Middle East (how long until the jihadists seize Baghdad?) .

President Obama authorized attacks against Iraq rebels causing oil price to rise on New York and London markets and this could be the beginning of a rising trend. After all Iraq is he second largest oil producer and is suffering heavily already due to the civil war.

What if Russia decides to invade Ukraine? How much will the oil price jump with pessimists seeing it even at 200 dollars?

Saturday, August 9, 2014

Economic war in the Ukraine

Well week after week goes by and the war continues in the Ukraine. Could it be Russian special troops acting like rebels? Are there real Ukraine rebels sick of the country's route to the EU and the West?

Anyway the truth is there is a lot of economical hassle around this war. Ukraine will have to pay a bigger price on the Russian gas and as they say in Game of Thrones, winter is coming. They have also lost Crimeea, Russians were quick to seize it and annex it. Not to say their economical ties with Russia, all cut. One can say Ukraine is now on the brink of disaster, bankrupt and desperately needing funds - but where to get them?

Russia on the other hand starts to have problems with the economic sanctions imposed by the West. Sure it still has to sell its gas all over EU, gets the French Mistral warships and all but can they stand a long economic cold-war? Only time will tell.

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Sunday, August 3, 2014

Second wave of the crysis?

OK folks so everyone is happy, the economic crisis left, we can all go back and spend in a frenzy no? Let's start again buying those big houses with long term loans. Let's get the latest and fanciest model of our favorite car. How about that trip to Bahamas you've always dreamed of? Go get it now, the economic crisis is gone... that's what they want you to think.

So what's been resolved since 2009? Are the huge national debts paid? Do most countries stopped borrowing money? Don't think so. They have just piled the garbage under the rug. So sooner or later we can expect to see it again and who will save the economies this time? More money being printed out of nowhere? More banks going bankrupt? Let's just wait and see!