Sunday, August 25, 2024

Kursk invasion - the beginning of the end of the war?

 


In a copycat maneuver to the Russian invasion to create buffer zone in Harkov last spring the Ukrainians decided to copy them and launch an invasion in Russia's Kursk region. They gathered everything they had, newest equipment, best units and launched the attack on August 6th. 

Initially they had success, the border was protected by border patrols, conscripts and militias allowing Zelenski's troops to occupy several dozen villages including the small town of Sudza. But Russians reacted quite quickly limiting this pocket of occupation and limiting Kiev's army's advance further.

Fierce aviation, artillery and missiles strikes hit the invaders inside this pocket while Russia informs that more than 5000 invading soldiers were eliminated together with large numbers of tanks, armored vehicles, rocket launchers, etc. 

Conditions also deteriorate in the occupation zone where Russian civilians now ask the Ukrainian military administration set under occupation to provide for utilities, food, medicines and such putting an even greater strain on the already depleted capacities of the Ukrainian military. 

And in the meantime Russian armies continue their slow and steady advance in southern and eastern Ukraine, reaching Torestsk and closing in on Pokrovosk. Ceasov Yar is seeing hard battles with its eastern part already under tight Russian control.

A look back in history can't shake the feeling the Ukrainian offensive is just a desperate Battle of the Bulge type of attack, with sacrificing their best troops and equipment in the hope Russian will ease the pressure of the other fronts and hastily redeploy large units and divisions in Kursk. Allowing then the Ukrainian a counteroffensive that would fail shamefully as their last one during summer 2023.

But such a hope is far fetched and it was wishful thinking to believe Russian will fall for such a trap, actually they are pretty content with a larger front as their numerical superiority allows them to win the long game of attrition war.


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