To Grexit or not to Grexit

After the panic of Syryza winning the elections in Greece calmed down and all the doomsayers analysts admitted there is no apocalypse yet it remains to be seen how the new so-called extremists will manage with governing a country with huge economic debt and a very impatient population.

Yes, it was easy to accuse the former goverment and promise a paradise in the elections but now when you are the wheel it starts getting rough. The prime minister Tsipras is still trying to maintain his populist speech, for startes he asked from Germany a collosal amount of money representing German reparations for the Nazi occupation back in World War II. Obviously Berlin refused to pay.

The next move is a visit to Russia which couldn't come in a more unfortunate moment for the European Union, just now when they are trying to show solidarity with Ukraine and raise the tone to Putin one of them is courting Russia. Actually more than one if we count Hungary's Viktor Orban or the Cyprus decision to allow Russian Navy to use its ports. All in all it is still to be seen who will lend money to Greece not just courtesy smiles.

The Swiss franc will get them all

Well I live in a small Eastern European country. Long time a communist satelite of Russia it wok up to capitalism around 25 years going through many stages which left the people poor, uneducated, greedy and frustrated.

After joing the European Union there were a lot of foreign banks wanting to ... penetrate this virgin market. Best offers were advertised everywhere and you could have a bigger house than your neighbour or a faster car than your colleague by just signing up for a loan you'll return triple during your lifetime.

And one of the most catchy offers were the Swiss francs. Low interest, affordable conditions for loan, everything set to capture in a perfect net a horde of silly fish. Once a couple of tens of thoundsand bit the offer the interest started to raise, then commisions, then came the financial crysys in 2008 and they saw all their big houses and fast cars going on the drain. And the last straw that broke the camel's back was the recent decision of the Nazionale Banca Svizra (something like it) to let the exchange rate float freely.

Scotland says No to independence

Well the independence referendum in Scotland brought no surprise, as polls predicted it the Scots choose to stay within the United Kingdom. That's really interesting since everywhere else in Europe regions struggle to separate (see Catalunya, Corsica, Kosovo - the last one if we don't mention Crimeea which would arguably still be a referendum for independence).

Anyway if the Scots would have taken this historical chance to take their country back (as William Wallace said it in the block-buster Braveheart) there would be a lot of struggle with splitting the national debt, the budgets, being kicked-off NATO and EU, adopting their own coin, etc. So maybe they thought it would be too much of a headache to be independent and preferred to continue staying dependent on London.

David Cameron's bet paid off in the end even risky and Scots might not have a similar chance for a few centuries more. But how knows?

Lowest ever interest rate

Who would have ever imagined that the Central European Bank would lower the reference interest rate to a measly 0,05%? That's almost free right?

Concerns of another crisis wave have increased after this measure as critics interpret this as a desperate way to stimulate consumption. However the markets reaction is minimal and banks are cautious to offer credit even at this rate.

Mario Draghi, the Bank's president will hold a press conference to explain this decision but analyst expect it will have little effect unless backed-up by other stimulation measures.

Russia invades Ukraine

Yes, it's as simple as that, confirmed by both Kiev and NATO about 100 tanks and armored vehicles crossed the Russian - Ukrainian border and occupied a few small cities near the border. Of course this is viewed as a rebel counter-offensive by Moscow but weren't the rebels besieged in their last two remaining strongholds in Luhansk and Donetsk?

The Western powers protested to Kremlin but they seem incapable of doing more even with Ukraine asking desperately for military assistance. Kiev's army is pushed back and will have a very tough challenge fighting against the superior Russian weapons delivered to the rebels.

In the meantime the country is slowly falling apart economically with the cost of the war being harder and harder to sustain each day. Lost between the EU and Russia, with a civil war scaring off foreign investors and a resigning government it seems there are dark horizons for Ukraine.

Russian convoy enters Ukraine, Kiev accuses open invansion

After a week of stationing at the Russian-Ukrainian border for customs check it seems that Moscow lost its patience and it's willing to help the poor Ukrainians even if they like it or not. President Putin order the trucks to pass the border without expecting an agreement to do so.

Kiev accused an invasion saying that any unauthorized border pass is clearly a violation of international rules but Kremlin seems to ignore these complaints. The trucks head deeper and deeper into the rebels controlled zone carrying possible weapons, ammunition, explosives and others.

In other events three armored vehicles and a couple of unidentified troops were spotted crossing the border into Ukraine from the Russian side. When question Moscow simply stated it's not aware of any trespassing. All this while the war is at its peak on the streets of Luhansk.

Russian humanitarian convoy going to Ukraine

OK that's interesting, so while Ukraine and most of the West accuses Russia of arming the separatists and fueling the war Putin thought to send a humanitarian convoy to help the population in the East. Lots of theories came spraying out of this: is this a Trojan horses convoy? Soldiers, weapon, ammunition? Only medicine and food supplies?

We've all seen on TVs that long line of white trucks (were they German MAN trucks?) driving slowly towards the Russian-Ukrainian border. The officials in Kiev were kind of outraged of this idea, accepting help from the enemy is not exactly what they need.

So once the trucks reach the border what will it happen? Assuming there are sectors of border controlled entirely by separatists (likely they are) the trucks will get in and unload their supply without problems. If Ukrainians try to prevent them and stop them by force they need to be very carefully not to offer the pretext for a future Russian military intervention.