Wednesday, August 19, 2015

The might Chinese dragon is landing - will it crash?

So there you know it, Chinese stock market falling like crazy these days. The big bubble finally burst. I guess it can happen in a communist centralized economy too. However as you would expect the response of the authorities is much stronger in such a state.

For once they forbid selling. Yes, you can do that. And it bruatlly fight the exact cause of prices falling. How can you stop a descending price? Make sure that no matter how small the demand the supply is non-existent.

Second they threw massive amounts of money owned by state banks and investment funds in the market to buy the biggest stocks and sustain artificially the demand.

So far this only stopped the bleeding or better said slowed it. The panic wave hit the nearby markets as well so you can expect stock prices falling in all of the Asians market. Could this be the start of the second wave of the economic crysis? Because make no mistake, the crysis problems weren't solved at all, they just hid the thrash under the carpet.


Monday, July 27, 2015

A referendum to decide if you pay or not?

Well folks you shouldn't be scared of debts anymore. Buy a house, buy a car, get that long-dreamed exotic holiday and do it on credit. Borrow as much as possible and when the time comes to pay just organize a democratic refrendum and vote if to pay or not.

It might seems like a comic movie but this is what happened in Greece. And still 38% of the Greeks decided to pay??? Funny no?

Tsipras tried to pull-it off for real or just to save his reputation? Maybe bluffing like a poker player with a couple of six-ers? Let's see if Germany has the full-house.

Monday, June 15, 2015

Greece - strike one, strike two, strike three - you're out!

Really Guys, did you still had high hopes for Greece not leaving the Euro zone? Each time it's the same headache with the Germans asking for rought reforms and the Greeks protesting and saying no. And Syryza is definately a harder parter to bargain with.

So why spent even more of the tax-payers money with a so-called solution that nobody profits from? It's just delaying the inevitable.

Saturday, April 11, 2015

To Grexit or not to Grexit

After the panic of Syryza winning the elections in Greece calmed down and all the doomsayers analysts admitted there is no apocalypse yet it remains to be seen how the new so-called extremists will manage with governing a country with huge economic debt and a very impatient population.

Yes, it was easy to accuse the former goverment and promise a paradise in the elections but now when you are the wheel it starts getting rough. The prime minister Tsipras is still trying to maintain his populist speech, for startes he asked from Germany a collosal amount of money representing German reparations for the Nazi occupation back in World War II. Obviously Berlin refused to pay.

The next move is a visit to Russia which couldn't come in a more unfortunate moment for the European Union, just now when they are trying to show solidarity with Ukraine and raise the tone to Putin one of them is courting Russia. Actually more than one if we count Hungary's Viktor Orban or the Cyprus decision to allow Russian Navy to use its ports. All in all it is still to be seen who will lend money to Greece not just courtesy smiles.

Monday, February 2, 2015

The Swiss franc will get them all

Well I live in a small Eastern European country. Long time a communist satelite of Russia it wok up to capitalism around 25 years going through many stages which left the people poor, uneducated, greedy and frustrated.

After joing the European Union there were a lot of foreign banks wanting to ... penetrate this virgin market. Best offers were advertised everywhere and you could have a bigger house than your neighbour or a faster car than your colleague by just signing up for a loan you'll return triple during your lifetime.

And one of the most catchy offers were the Swiss francs. Low interest, affordable conditions for loan, everything set to capture in a perfect net a horde of silly fish. Once a couple of tens of thoundsand bit the offer the interest started to raise, then commisions, then came the financial crysys in 2008 and they saw all their big houses and fast cars going on the drain. And the last straw that broke the camel's back was the recent decision of the Nazionale Banca Svizra (something like it) to let the exchange rate float freely.

Saturday, September 20, 2014

Scotland says No to independence

Well the independence referendum in Scotland brought no surprise, as polls predicted it the Scots choose to stay within the United Kingdom. That's really interesting since everywhere else in Europe regions struggle to separate (see Catalunya, Corsica, Kosovo - the last one if we don't mention Crimeea which would arguably still be a referendum for independence).

Anyway if the Scots would have taken this historical chance to take their country back (as William Wallace said it in the block-buster Braveheart) there would be a lot of struggle with splitting the national debt, the budgets, being kicked-off NATO and EU, adopting their own coin, etc. So maybe they thought it would be too much of a headache to be independent and preferred to continue staying dependent on London.

David Cameron's bet paid off in the end even risky and Scots might not have a similar chance for a few centuries more. But how knows?

Thursday, September 4, 2014

Lowest ever interest rate

Who would have ever imagined that the Central European Bank would lower the reference interest rate to a measly 0,05%? That's almost free right?

Concerns of another crisis wave have increased after this measure as critics interpret this as a desperate way to stimulate consumption. However the markets reaction is minimal and banks are cautious to offer credit even at this rate.

Mario Draghi, the Bank's president will hold a press conference to explain this decision but analyst expect it will have little effect unless backed-up by other stimulation measures.